Overview Market Analysis for whole world

With the Global Market rally from march 09 to now 25/08/09 .The Global market is seen to be reslient and will likely to still be on the uptrend ,due to strong sentiment of the bullish.

$SPX(US Index)…{+}

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Daily Market Analysis AMC—- 03/07/09

16:20 ET

Stocks Sunk Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Dow -218.94 at 8285.12, Nasdaq -49.20 at 1796.52, S&P -26.18 at 897.15

[BRIEFING.COM] A disappointing jobs report prompted sellers to knock stocks sharply lower in the first few minutes of trading. Stocks then locked into an extremely narrow trading range until the S&P 500 slipped below the psychologically significant 900 level in the final half-hour of trading.

Following an uninspiring finish to the previous session, stocks had already been showing weakness ahead of the government’s latest jobs report, which was released shortly before the opening bell. However, sellers became emboldened when the June Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated that 467,000 jobs were lost last month. That marked pickup from the 322,000 jobs that were lost in May, and topped the 365,000 losses that were widely expected.

Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate now stands at 9.5%, which isn’t quite as bad as the 9.6% that was expected, but it still marks a 25-year high. According to Reuters, the White House expects unemployment rate to climb to 10% in next two to three months. Average weekly hours came in at a slightly worse-than-expected 33.0. Since hours often lead payrolls and employers are cutting back hours suggests that hiring remains a long ways off, which will damper consumer spending and hopes of a consumer-led economic recovery.

May factory orders made a surprisingly strong 1.2% increase, which bested the 0.9% increase that had been forecast. The stock market attempted to pare some of its losses following the orders announcement, but the disappointing jobs report dominated headlines and overshadowed the encouraging orders data.

Since U.S. market’s are closed Friday in observance of Independence Day, this session’s decline gave stocks their third straight weekly loss. During that time, stocks have shed more than 5%. This session’s weakness was widespread as declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 20-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Losses were steepest among energy and financial stocks. They both finished 3.7% lower. Energy was hampered by a 3.7% drop in crude oil prices, which closed at $66.73 per barrel. Crude has fallen for three consecutive sessions. Meanwhile, financials were severely undercut by losses among insurers.

Elan (ELN 7.66, +0.66) was one of the few stocks to post a gain this session. The company garnered support following the announcement that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 55.97, -1.10) will acquire certain drug assets from Elan and will invest $1 billion in Elan through an affiliate.

In other corporate news, Exelon (EXC 49.03, -2.53) has increased its exchange offer to acquire NRG Energy(NRG 24.59, -1.46) by 12%. The increase was widely expected and neither stock was able to attract buyers amid the session’s broad-based selling effort.

Trading volume was extremely light ahead of the long, holiday weekend. Hardly 700 million shares traded hands on the NYSE in what was the most thinly traded session this year. That’s even after trading had been extended by 15 minutes in order to address system irregularities.

..Nasdaq 100 -2.4%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -3.2%. ..Russell 2000 -3.8%

Weekly Wrap

Last Update: 03-Jul-09 09:08 ET

There was a dearth of corporate news, so market participants turned their attention to economic data during the holiday shortened and thinly traded week.   Two of the most widely watched reports — consumer confidence and the employment situation — failed to live up to expectations, resulting in the stock market losing 2.4% for the week.

All ten sectors  posted a loss, with financials (-4.0%) and materials (-3.2%) coming under the most selling pressure.  Defensive sectors outperformed on a relative basis, with consumer staples shedding 0.1%.  The shortened summer week resulted in light trading volume, with roughly 1 billion shares averaged on the NYSE compared to the 200 day moving average of 1.5 bln.

The national employment situation remains weak.  Nonfarm payrolls fell by 467,000, which was worse than the expected decline of 325,000, and broke the recent trend of smaller payroll declines.  Some market participants anticipated a larger-than-expected decline after the worse-than-expected private payroll report from ADP on Wednesday.  Still, stocks sank 2% following the release of the official government data on Thursday.

Further large payroll declines are expected until weekly new jobless claims drop below 400,000.  On a related note, new jobless claims for the week ended June 27 came in at a very high 614,000.

The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 9.5%, which was slightly better than the expected  rate of 9.6%.  However, the increase was due to fluctuations in the labor force, and the unemployment rate is likely to increase further over the next several months.

The continued difficulty in obtaining a job was reflected in the latest consumer confidence report.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence report for June came in at 49.3%, dropping from 54.8% in May and missing the consensus estimate of 55.3%.  The Present Situation Index declined to 24.8% from 29.7% and the Expectations Index dropped to 65.5% from 71.5%.

Consumers remain bearish regarding employment, with those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead falling to 17.4% from 19.3%.

In other economic news, May construction spending missed expectations (-0.9% m/m versus -0.6% consensus), while  June ISM manufacturing (44.8 versus 44.9 consensus) and June Auto Sales (9.7 mln versus 9.8 mln consensus) were nearly in-line with estimates.

In corporate news, General Mills (GIS) rose 5.8% after the company posted better-than-expected earnings, gave an upbeat forecast and raised its dividend.

The second quarter ended Tuesday and recorded the biggest quarterly gain since 1998 for the S&P 500.  Specifically, the S&P 500 gained 15%, the Dow advanced 11% and the Nasdaq climbed 20% in the quarter.  In second quarter commodities action, oil prices surged 41%, gold advanced 0.5%, and the CRB Index rose 14%.  Meanwhile, the dollar index fell 6.2%.

Looking ahead, earnings reports are light next week, but Dow component Alcoa (AA) marks the start of earnings reporting season Wednesday.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	8438.39	8280.74	-157.65	-1.9	-5.6
Nasdaq	1838.22	1796.52	-41.70	-2.3	13.9
S&P 500	918.90	896.52	-22.38	-2.4	-0.7
Russell 2000	513.22	497.36	-15.86	-3.1	-0.4

Weekly Market analysis June 8 — Week 24/09

The market recently again as I say in last few weeks ,has been once again irrational ,and choppy.

Average week volume has been seen weaker .

On Monday ,the market spiked up and gain 23 points in S&P 500 .Due to before market hours ,releases several good economy news such as Core PCE price index ,personal spending and personal income slightly beat expectation.And 10 am of economy news such as ISM manufacturing PMI,Construction spending/m and ISM manufacturing prices all managed to beat expectation,which in turn result of further positive news ,seeing the index breakthrough to resistance level at 10am.

On Tuesday,The market close at bullish spinning top.Although news of pending home sales has beat expectation by damn a lot,but it does not cause the market to rally ,due to a strong resistance at 950.

On Wednesday,ADP non farm worse than expectation which result the fall of the market ,and later others economy news such as ISM manufacering PMI,and Factory order below expectation and crude oil which recently seen as a guide line towards whether the economy have demand in goods,because when oil has demand ,that show good outlook of economy ,with the release 2.9 m vs -1.6 m (forecast)Supply more than demand show that the economy still has not turn good ,which result market to down further.And only after last 30+min market started to reverse.

On Thursday,I see Wednesday last 30 min up as failure of evening star in technical aspect which see Thursday close at 942.The economy news today are pretty flat ,but the market rally without any reason,purely strong bullish sentiment still remain to prevail.

On Friday ,With divergence news ,both good and bad news such as unemployment rate worse that expect,and non farm better than expectation result in the market to be rather flat.

Overall Market has been choppy with only conviction on Monday, other days has been quite mixed at choppy.

Economy news for week 24

No much news for this week except for major one are trade balance on Wednesday,unemployment claims and retail sales.

Summary:This coming weeks is choppy once again,which I see ,sentiment is still on bullish side which may see continue rally in upcoming weeks,but volume has start to drop ,showing a price to volume divergence in overall view.

As Q2 going to end ,which june 2^nd week tend to show negative week. Which funds manager will tend to close down their trade to show a positive turnover of their funds ,so to atttract more customer.Which result in this week to be down.

Overall market  is still bullish as oil is continue to make it way up, due to bullish month in oil from may onwards.

S&P 500: consolidation down,or downward.

Weekly Market Analysis June 1 Week23/09

S&P500 index at friday gain 32 points from last week closing price.

During Tuesday ,The index bounce up as it touches the major support lines 880,this spike up is due to consumer confidence is highly postive and beat the forecast very significant.

And on Wednesday ,with the release housing data is say to be poor.

On Thursday,release of  Durable good order better than expectation ,give the market to rally and later release of new home sales is worse than expectation ,but it does not give the market to go downtrend ,and crude oil inventory release give the market another reason for rally.

And on Friday ended the month,The days is choppy until the last 10 minutes with  an impressive spike up .basically the best and fastest move of the day came in the final minutes of the day.Not very clear with the reason ,as it can be traders is unclear of the likely week what may happened and start to cover all short trade.and wait and look out for further signal.

Major Economy news

This week is full of economy data 

Monday:ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday:Pending Home Sales m/m

Wednesday:ADP Non-Farm Employment Change,ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI,Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Thursday:Unemployment Claims,Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Friday:Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Summary :this week is  will be tend to be choppy as,there is not exact signal showing bullish or bearish,but it is on bullish bias more ,so need to remain vigilant and watch the price closely.I see as more gains when when s&P500 breakthrough 927.50.but currently now without fundemental support with the rally,with only strong sentiment so need to watch out .

Market Analysis May 25 Week 22/09

The market go up major uptrend on monday,and soon formed a gradual sell off of the remaining week.

Monday due to NAHB Housing Market Index increased and too technically there is a nice support level in $indu 8230.that cause market investor to go in.

Tuesday  is  flat ,housing start and building permit turn out to be worse then expectation.banks increase target for financial insitution mixed news 

Wednesday hit the previous high of resistance line ,and market start to down down after market reversal period.And market true colour come in sending the index to do down.

Thursday release the news that S&P 500 has downgrade UK rating to being a AAA debt rating,this news created fear remain the market that US will be the next country aim for downgrade. This causes fear inside the market .

Friday ,with major reports that bondholders refused to take an equity stake in General Motors(Separate reports indicate that the company has reached much needed concessions with the United Auto Workers union, and that the company is not going to be pushed into bankruptcy next week.And hence Banks has been view that the valuation has dropped more ,because of more stock offering which causes duliting the valuation.

 

Volume has been lower in term of weekly volume as can see that volume has 244.4 million in transaction for dow jones.And it formed a double top and close at near the support level.

The $vix has dropped from 33 to 26.5 on 20/05/09 and up to 33 again .although there are much negativity new ,but it does not send the vix up much ,show that market sentiment is still on more towards bullish side rather than bearish.

Economy news 

Tuesday-CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday-Existing Home Sales

Thursday-Unemployment Claims,Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Friday-Prelim GDP q/q

 

Summary for week 22

With vix near resistance level of the fibo fans ,this week is likely a very choppy week ,with no clear up or downtrend,but based on technical show that this week will be most likely down trend.so keep watch out on daily market analysis to have an idea what coming next.