Daily Market Analysis AMC—27/07/09

Sellers Shaken for Modest Gain

Dow +15.27 at 9108.51, Nasdaq +1.93 at 1967.89, S&P+2.92 at 982.18

[BRIEFING.COM] Thanks to underlying support in the broader market and leadership from bank stocks, the major indices were able to shake off a mild fit of profit taking and close modestly higher.

Stocks started the session with moderate losses as participants pushed back after watching stocks climb more than 10% during the course of the past two weeks. The major averages made a respectable move higher when news surfaced that new home sales during June spiked 11% to hit a better-than-expected annualized rate of 384,000. With new home sales coming in at their highest rate since November, the supply of unsold homes moved lower to 8.8 months from 10.2 months in May.

Enthusiasm over the new home sales report didn’t last very long, but a supportive bid for the broader market helped contain weakness. The stock market was also supported by strength among bank stocks, which underpinned a 1.5% gain by the financial sector.

Bank stocks showed strength for the entire session and helped the KBW Banking Index log a 3.1% gain. With many major banks having already reported their quarterly results, there weren’t any particular news items to account for the strength behind banking issues. However, news from The Wall Street Journal that second quarter lending was down nearly 3% among 15 large U.S. banks suggested that many banks remain cautious about putting their money to work. Reports indicate that lending also slowed in the euro-zone.

In-line earnings from Dow component Verizon (VZ 31.00, -0.50) and Honeywell (HON 34.24, +0.25) were underwhelming. Honeywell’s cautious outlook did little to inspire. Such was the same for Aetna (AET 25.72, -0.72), which also fell short of earnings expectations.

A prerecorded interview with Fed Chairman Bernanke will air on PBS tonight. According to Reuters, Bernanke responded to questions about the Fed’s actions during the past year by saying that he would not be the one who presided over the second Great Depression. Bernanke also stated that the jobless rate will remain high even after the U.S. exits recession.

AMGN Tops Estimates

Last Update: 27-Jul-09 16:52 ET

Price level versus 4 pm ET: Thanks to underlying support in the broader market and leadership from bank stocks, the major indices were able to shake off a mild fit of profit taking and close modestly higher.

Seven of the ten sectors posted a gain, led by financials (+1.5%), with banks showing particularly strength.

The worst performing sector was tech (-0.3%).

Futures are flat after hours, with S&P 500 futures, at 979.10 and Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1598.00 both in-line with fair value.

AMGN reports second quarter (Jun) earnings of $1.29 per share, $0.13 better than the First Call consensus of $1.16. Revenue fell 1.4% year-over-year to $3.71 billion versus the $3.58 billion consensus. second quarter Drug Sales: Enbrel: $899 million versus $901 million; Neulasta: $831 million versus $875 million First Call Consensus; Aranesp: $693 million versus $668 million First Call Consensus; Epogen: $638 million versus $605 million First Call Consensus; Neupogen: $327 million versus $322 million First Call Consensus. Company issues upside guidance for fiscal year 2008, sees earnings per share of $4.80-4.95 versus $4.57 consensus; says revenues for 2009 are trending towards the upper end of the current guidance range of $14.4-14.8 billion versus $14.33 billion consensus. “We are optimistic about our financial performance in 2009 and are focused on making denosumab a success,” said Kevin Sharer, chairman and chief executive officer.

A larger number of companies report earnings tomorrow before the open, including Office Depot (ODP),Supervalu (SVU), U.S. Steel (XC) and Viacom (VIA.B).

On the economic calendar, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May is due 9:00ET followed by July consumer confidence at 10:00ET.

The first of a three part speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke on PBS news Hour with Jim Lehrer is scheduled for 18:00ET.

Daily Market Analysis 24/07/09—AMC

Stocks Overcome Weakness for Mixed Finish

Dow +23.95 at 9093.24, Nasdaq -7.64 at 1965.96, S&P+2.97 at 979.26

[BRIEFING.COM] Tech stocks were under pressure for the entire session and caused the Nasdaq to log its first loss in more than two weeks, but a supportive bid in the broader market emerged to help the Dow and S&P 500 reverse early losses and finish with a modest gain.

Microsoft (MSFT 23.45, -2.11) weighed on the Nasdaq for the entire session. Though the company generated in-line earnings, a double-digit percentage decline in revenue caused its top line to come short of expectations. Microsoft’s report showcased just how weak demand remains.

Semiconductor stocks (-1.3%) were pressured even though Broadcom (BRCM 27.20, -1.98) topped earnings expectations, saw revenue rise at a double-digit annual clip, and provided upside revenue guidance for the third quarter. Some believe the results from semiconductor companies are an inaccurate barometer for the tech sector’s health since they feed the tech supply chain rather than consumers directly.

In-line earnings and an in-line outlook from online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 86.49, -7.38) failed to rebuff profit takers from locking in gains from the stock’s 24% surge between July 7 and July 23. That also weighed on the Nasdaq.

Weakness in the Nasdaq caused it to lag the other headline indices for the entire session. It was down nearly 2% at its session low, but was able to reclaim most of its losses as the session progressed. Still, its decline put an end to its 12-session streak of gains.

The S&P 500, a broader market benchmark, was able to close with a modest gain at session highs. Health care provided leadership with a 1.6% advance amid news from Reuters that a leader of House fiscal conservatives said health care reform talks fell apart and that he sees no possibility of a deal.

Financial stocks tried to provide support to the broader market, but they never made their way into positive territory. Instead, they finished with a 0.3% loss. Capital One (COF 30.07, +2.24) saw strong gains, though. The consumer finance outfit reported a second quarter loss that wasn’t as deep as what had been expected. Participants also reacted positively to the company’s quarterly metrics.

Dow component American Express (AXP 29.51, +0.06) was able to eke out a gain after narrowly topping the consensus earnings estimate. Its loss provisions were down from the year-ago period, but they were offset by higher write-offs and past due loans.

Market participants return Monday to another batch of quarterly announcements. New home sales data for June are also due.

..Nasdaq 100 -0.2%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.6%. ..Russell 2000 +0.5%.

Weekly Wrap

Last Update: 24-Jul-09 16:50 ET

The stock market logged another impressive week as investors cheered better-than-expected earnings reports, with the S&P 500 surging 4.1%, marking an 11% gain since July 10.

The best performing sectors were materials (+8.1%), energy (+5.6%) and utilities (+5.6%).

The week got off to a positive bias on report from The Wall Street Journal that CIT Group (CIT) had reached an agreement with its bondholders to secure $3 billion in rescue financing, which was later confirmed by the struggling lender.  Whether CIT will be able to avoid bankruptcy remains to be seen, although this will give the lender some time to explore its options.

With only a handful of economic releases, the main focus this week was the large amount of earnings reports — 142 S&P 500 companies reported their quarterly results, including 12 Dow components.

Earnings for the most recent quarter largely came out ahead of expectations, with 111 beats, 10 in-line and 21 misses.  But the earnings beats were largely due to cost cutting measures, not upside surprises on the top line. Specifically, 72 companies posted revenue that failed to live up to expectations, and 102 reported year-over-year declines in revenue.

For instance, Microsoft met analyst EPS estimates in its fiscal fourth quarter at $0.36, but the software giant’s revenue decline of 17% y/y to $13.1 bln was well short of the $14.4 bln consensus. Shares of MSFT fell 4.0% for the week.

There were 11 other Dow components that reported – Merck (MRK), United Tech. (UTX), DuPont (DD), CocaCola (KO), Caterpillar (CAT), Boeing (BA), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), AT&T (T), McDonald’s (MCD), AmericanExpress (AXP) –  all of which topped EPS expectations. Yet the revenue results reflect the difficult corporate environment — only two companies posted positive (nearly flat) y/y revenue, and seven missed the consensus revenue estimate.  The market’s reaction to the earnings reports were mostly positive, led by a 23.6% surge in shares of CAT.

The economic calendar was light this week, although there are a handful of notable mentions. Initial claims for the week ended July 18 jumped 30,000 to 554,000. The consensus estimate stood at 557,000 so the increase was expected. The latest figure left the four-week moving average at 566,000, which is down from 585,000 in the prior week.  Although the decline in the four-week moving average is a welcome sign, new jobless claims are still well above normal levels.

Existing Home Sales in June increased 3.6% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units. That was above the consensus estimate of 4.84 million, yet with the slight downward revision for May to 4.72 million from 4.77 million, the 2-month period was precisely in-line with estimates. The June report validates the notion that existing home sales are stabilizing at a depressed base.  Still, housing faces significant hurdles, such as rising unemployment and excess inventory.

In other news, Fed Chairman Bernanke addressed Senate and House finance committees this week in his semiannual report.  The chairman did not give any real surprises, noting that current economic conditions warrant the low fed funds rate for an extended period of time.  Bernanke expects a gradual economic recovery in 2010, with some acceleration in 2011.

The advance this week sent the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 to their best levels of the year, with the Dow now in positive territory.

The coming week brings another barrage of earnings reports, as well as a pickup in economic data.  The advance Q2 GDP reading, due on Friday, is expected to show a decline of 1.5%.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	8743.94	9093.24	349.30	4.0	3.6
Nasdaq	1886.61	1965.96	79.35	4.2	24.7
S&P 500	940.38	979.26	38.88	4.1	8.4
Russell 2000	519.22	548.46	29.24	5.6	9.8

Daily Market Analysis AMC—22/07/09

Nasdaq Extends Streak of Gains

Dow -34.68 at 8881.26, Nasdaq +10.18 at 1926.38,S&P -0.51 at 954.07

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 and the Dow both finished modestly lower in mixed trading, but continued strength among large-cap tech helped the Nasdaq successfully log its 11th straight advance.

Apple (AAPL 156.74, +5.23) helped win additional favor for tech issues by posting better-than-expected earnings of $1.35 per share, which is $0.18 better than analysts had come to expect. The company did issue a rather conservative outlook, but Apple has made a habit of that practice and then over delivering.

Better-than-expected earnings headlines from major financial players during recent weeks have many investors looking for earnings of a higher quality and an optimistic outlook. In turn, better-than-expected earnings fromWells Fargo (WFC 24.45, -0.90) were partly overshadowed by news that the company’s revenues fell short of the consensus and net charge-offs increased markedly to almost $4.4 billion.

Commentary from several earnings and conference calls helped garner support for the financial sector and turn a near 2% loss into a respectable gain. However, the rebound proved unsustainable and financials finished with a 0.2% loss.

Health care also finished lower. It shed 0.6% even though Eli Lilly (LLY 33.79, -0.66) and Pfizer (PFE 15.87, +0.17) both posted upside earnings surprises.

More than 150 companies are expected to announce their latest quarterly results between this evening and Thursday’s opening bell.

Energy stocks lagged for the entire session and finished with a 1.0% loss, more than any other sector. Without any major oil companies announcing their latest results, participants generally took their cues from energy contracts. Crude oil futures prices finished 0.4% lower at $65.36 per barrel. Still, that is well above the near 2% loss that oil traded with in early pit trade. A smaller-than-expected draw in weekly inventories seemed to stymie a push into positive territory, though.

Fed Chairman Bernanke testified today before the Senate Banking Committee, but stocks were unaffected by the speech since his comments reflected those previously presented. There weren’t any major economic releases out, but stocks did have a modestly, though briefly sustained, positive reaction to news that home prices made a surprise increase in May. Home prices had slid in each of the two preceding months.

..Nasdaq 100 +0.8%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.4%. ..Russell 2000 +0.7%.

eBay Beats Expectations

Price level versus 4 pm ET: The S&P 500 and the Dow both finished modestly lower amid mixed trading, but continued strength among large-cap tech helped the Nasdaq successfully log its eleventh straight advance… Apple (AAPL 156.74, +5.23) helped win additional favor for tech issues by posting better-than-expected earnings of $1.35 per share, which is $0.18 better than analysts had come to expect.

Five of the ten sectors advanced, led by a 1.0% gain in consumer discretionary.  The worst performing sector was energy, down 1.0%.

Futures are flat-to-lower after hours. S&P 500 futures, at 950.50 nearly in-line with fair value and Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1558.00 are below fair value by six points.

Company	Stock Move	Reason for Move
eBay (EBAY)	20.49 +1.04 (+5.4%)	EBAY reports second quarter (Jun) earnings of $0.37 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.36. Revenue fell 4.5% year-over-year to $2.1 billion versus the $1.99 billion consensus. Company issues mixed guidance for third quarter, sees earnings per share of $0.34-0.36 versus $0.35 consensus; sees third quarter revenue of $2.05-2.15 billion versus $2 billion consensus. The company’s cash and cash equivalents totaled $2.57 billion at June 30, 2009, compared to $3.19 billion at December 31, 2008. The acquisition of Gmarket for $1.21 billion was completed on June 15, 2009. Skype contributed $170.0 million in revenue for the quarter, representing 25% year-over-year growth. Skype added 37.3 million registered users during the quarter and ended the period with more than 480.5 million registered users, Net total payment volume (TPV) for the quarter was $16.71 billion, an increase of 12%. Gross Merchandise Volume rose 2% sequentially to $11.1 billion and Total Users rose to 88.4 million from 88.3 million.
Qualcomm(QCOM)	46.30 -2.15 (-4.4%)	QCOM reports third quarter (Jun) earnings of $0.54 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.52. Revenue fell 0.6% year-over-year to $2.74 billion versus the $2.73 billion consensus. Company issues in-line guidance for fourth quarter, sees fourth quarter revenue of $2.55-2.75 billion versus $2.71 billion consensus. Company said, “Despite the global economic uncertainty, we anticipate another strong quarter for our chipset shipments in the fourth fiscal quarter. We believe the CDMA inventory channel has largely stabilized, yet remains near historically low levels consistent with our prior forecast.”
VMWare(VMW)	33.75 +2.50 (+8.0%)	VMW reports second quarter (Jun) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.19. Revenue were unchanged from the year-ago period at $456 million, versus $452.1 million consensus. Company issues in-line guidance for third quarter, sees third quarter revenue of $465-480 million versus $471.10 million consensus. Company issues in-line guidance for fiscal year 2008, sees fiscal year 2008 revenue up 1-3% year-over-year (roughly $1.90-1.94 billion) versus $1.91 billion consensus.
Sandisk(SNDK)	18.99 +0.19 (+1.0%)	SNDK reports second quarter (Jun) earnings of $0.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.52 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.16); revenues fell 10.4% year-over-year to $731 million versus the $709.7 million consensus. “We are very pleased with our return to profitability in the second quarter, driven by increased pricing, higher royalty revenue, and strong execution. Our decisive and timely restructuring actions are delivering the intended results… In the second quarter we renewed our patent cross license agreement with Samsung Electronics, providing market certainty. We remain cautiously optimistic about the second half of 2009.”

Earnings will continue to make headlines tomorrow before the open, with 3M (MMM), AT&T (T) Bristol-Myers(BMY), Ford (F), UPS (UPS), Wyeth (WYE), among others, all due to report.

In economic data tomorrow, weekly new unemployment claims is due at 8:30ET, followed by June existing home sales at 10:00ET.

Daily Market Analysis AMC—-8/07/09

Mixed Finish Follows Rebuffed Selling Effort

Dow +14.81 at 8178.41, Nasdaq +1.00 at 1747.17, S&P-1.47 at 879.56

[BRIEFING.COM] News that G8 leaders believe the world economy still faces significant risks didn’t stop stocks from starting the session in higher ground. However,

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Daily Market Analysis AMC—-07/07/09

Broad Selling Effort Sinks Stocks

Dow -161.27 at 8163.60, Nasdaq -41.23 at 1746.17,S&P -17.69 at 881.03

[BRIEFING.COM] After holding above key technical levels midway through the session, the S&P 500 rolled over and violated its 200-day moving average amid broad-based selling pressure. In turn, stocks finished near session lows and the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the third time in the past 26 sessions.

The afternoon sell-off was generally an extension of the market’s recent weakness, which became more recognizable following last week’s disappointing jobs report. Buyers are also showing reluctance ahead of earnings season, which unofficially begins when Alcoa (AA 9.41, +0.15) announces its latest results after Wednesday’s closing bell. Alcoa won favor ahead of the report amid reports today that the company is optimistic about demand. The comments came despite persistent macro headwinds.

Concern that economic conditions remain tenuous led President Obama to indicate that a second fiscal stimulus isn’t off the table. However, Dow Jones reported that Senate Majority Leader Reid doesn’t believe there is any case at this stage for another economic stimulus package.

Meanwhile, the government is expected to unveil its Public-Private Investment Plan (PPIP) tomorrow. According to news sources, BlackRock (BLK 162.17, -4.06), which is the largest money manager by assets under management, will be one of the PPIP managers.

Losses were steep and broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 finished lower. Industrials suffered the largest blow by dropping 3.3%.

Energy was a laggard for the entire session and finished 2.5% lower as falling oil prices undercut the sector. Crude oil futures closed 1.8% lower at $62.90 per barrel, which marks the fifth straight decline and the lowest closing price for pit trading in more than one month. Still, crude oil prices are up 40% year-to-date.

Weakness among other commodities caused the CRB Commodity Index to shed 1.5%. The CRB is down nearly 4% so far this week. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold hearings this summer to consider imposing position limits for commodities of finite supply. That would include oil and natural gas.

Despite succumbing to selling pressure, health care was able to limit its losses. The sector closed roughly 0.3% lower after spending nearly all of the session trading with a gain. The relative strength followed reports that hospitals have agreed to contribute funds toward covering the uninsured in the future. The agreement removes an element of uncertainty from the sector amid ongoing efforts to reform health care.

Large-cap tech issues weighed on the Nasdaq for the second straight session and caused the tech-rich index to underperform its counterparts. Semiconductors failed to provide support and shed 2.9% instead. Their decline came despite analyst upgrades for shares of Marvell Tech (MRVL 11.50, +0.10) and Intel (INTC 16.25, -0.29).

..Nasdaq 100 -2.5%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -2.2%. ..Russell 2000 -2.0%

Price level versus 4 pm ET: After holding above key technical levels midway through the session, the S&P 500 rolled over and violated its 200-day moving average amid broad-based selling pressure. In turn, stocks finished near session lows and the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the third time in the past 26 sessions.

All ten sectors fell.  The worst performing areas were industrials (-3.3%), tech (-2.5%), energy (-2.5%) and materials (-2.5%). The defensive-oriented healthcare sector (-0.3%) outperformed on a relative basis.

Futures are flat-to-slightly higher after hours. S&P 500 futures, at 878.00 are within fair value by a point and Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1406.50 are above fair value by about two points

Five companies are confirmed to report earnings tomorrow, with Alcoa (AA) marking the start of earnings report season after the close.

In economic news, the May Consumer Credit report is due at 15:00ET.  In addition, the G8 kicks off its three day summit and the weekly crude inventory report is due at 10:30ET.

Daily Market Analysis AMC—- 03/07/09

16:20 ET

Stocks Sunk Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Dow -218.94 at 8285.12, Nasdaq -49.20 at 1796.52, S&P -26.18 at 897.15

[BRIEFING.COM] A disappointing jobs report prompted sellers to knock stocks sharply lower in the first few minutes of trading. Stocks then locked into an extremely narrow trading range until the S&P 500 slipped below the psychologically significant 900 level in the final half-hour of trading.

Following an uninspiring finish to the previous session, stocks had already been showing weakness ahead of the government’s latest jobs report, which was released shortly before the opening bell. However, sellers became emboldened when the June Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated that 467,000 jobs were lost last month. That marked pickup from the 322,000 jobs that were lost in May, and topped the 365,000 losses that were widely expected.

Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate now stands at 9.5%, which isn’t quite as bad as the 9.6% that was expected, but it still marks a 25-year high. According to Reuters, the White House expects unemployment rate to climb to 10% in next two to three months. Average weekly hours came in at a slightly worse-than-expected 33.0. Since hours often lead payrolls and employers are cutting back hours suggests that hiring remains a long ways off, which will damper consumer spending and hopes of a consumer-led economic recovery.

May factory orders made a surprisingly strong 1.2% increase, which bested the 0.9% increase that had been forecast. The stock market attempted to pare some of its losses following the orders announcement, but the disappointing jobs report dominated headlines and overshadowed the encouraging orders data.

Since U.S. market’s are closed Friday in observance of Independence Day, this session’s decline gave stocks their third straight weekly loss. During that time, stocks have shed more than 5%. This session’s weakness was widespread as declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 20-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Losses were steepest among energy and financial stocks. They both finished 3.7% lower. Energy was hampered by a 3.7% drop in crude oil prices, which closed at $66.73 per barrel. Crude has fallen for three consecutive sessions. Meanwhile, financials were severely undercut by losses among insurers.

Elan (ELN 7.66, +0.66) was one of the few stocks to post a gain this session. The company garnered support following the announcement that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 55.97, -1.10) will acquire certain drug assets from Elan and will invest $1 billion in Elan through an affiliate.

In other corporate news, Exelon (EXC 49.03, -2.53) has increased its exchange offer to acquire NRG Energy(NRG 24.59, -1.46) by 12%. The increase was widely expected and neither stock was able to attract buyers amid the session’s broad-based selling effort.

Trading volume was extremely light ahead of the long, holiday weekend. Hardly 700 million shares traded hands on the NYSE in what was the most thinly traded session this year. That’s even after trading had been extended by 15 minutes in order to address system irregularities.

..Nasdaq 100 -2.4%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -3.2%. ..Russell 2000 -3.8%

Weekly Wrap

Last Update: 03-Jul-09 09:08 ET

There was a dearth of corporate news, so market participants turned their attention to economic data during the holiday shortened and thinly traded week.   Two of the most widely watched reports — consumer confidence and the employment situation — failed to live up to expectations, resulting in the stock market losing 2.4% for the week.

All ten sectors  posted a loss, with financials (-4.0%) and materials (-3.2%) coming under the most selling pressure.  Defensive sectors outperformed on a relative basis, with consumer staples shedding 0.1%.  The shortened summer week resulted in light trading volume, with roughly 1 billion shares averaged on the NYSE compared to the 200 day moving average of 1.5 bln.

The national employment situation remains weak.  Nonfarm payrolls fell by 467,000, which was worse than the expected decline of 325,000, and broke the recent trend of smaller payroll declines.  Some market participants anticipated a larger-than-expected decline after the worse-than-expected private payroll report from ADP on Wednesday.  Still, stocks sank 2% following the release of the official government data on Thursday.

Further large payroll declines are expected until weekly new jobless claims drop below 400,000.  On a related note, new jobless claims for the week ended June 27 came in at a very high 614,000.

The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 9.5%, which was slightly better than the expected  rate of 9.6%.  However, the increase was due to fluctuations in the labor force, and the unemployment rate is likely to increase further over the next several months.

The continued difficulty in obtaining a job was reflected in the latest consumer confidence report.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence report for June came in at 49.3%, dropping from 54.8% in May and missing the consensus estimate of 55.3%.  The Present Situation Index declined to 24.8% from 29.7% and the Expectations Index dropped to 65.5% from 71.5%.

Consumers remain bearish regarding employment, with those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead falling to 17.4% from 19.3%.

In other economic news, May construction spending missed expectations (-0.9% m/m versus -0.6% consensus), while  June ISM manufacturing (44.8 versus 44.9 consensus) and June Auto Sales (9.7 mln versus 9.8 mln consensus) were nearly in-line with estimates.

In corporate news, General Mills (GIS) rose 5.8% after the company posted better-than-expected earnings, gave an upbeat forecast and raised its dividend.

The second quarter ended Tuesday and recorded the biggest quarterly gain since 1998 for the S&P 500.  Specifically, the S&P 500 gained 15%, the Dow advanced 11% and the Nasdaq climbed 20% in the quarter.  In second quarter commodities action, oil prices surged 41%, gold advanced 0.5%, and the CRB Index rose 14%.  Meanwhile, the dollar index fell 6.2%.

Looking ahead, earnings reports are light next week, but Dow component Alcoa (AA) marks the start of earnings reporting season Wednesday.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	8438.39	8280.74	-157.65	-1.9	-5.6
Nasdaq	1838.22	1796.52	-41.70	-2.3	13.9
S&P 500	918.90	896.52	-22.38	-2.4	-0.7
Russell 2000	513.22	497.36	-15.86	-3.1	-0.4

Daily Market Analysis AMC—01/07/2009

16:25 ET

Early Gains Fade Amid Mixed Data

Dow +57.06 at 8504.06, Nasdaq +10.68 at 1845.72, S&P +4.01 at 923.33

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks quickly climbed markedly higher in the early going, but gradually pared their gains throughout afternoon trading. Though gains remained broad-based, the steady, downward drift made for a rather unimpressive conclusion to the month’s first session.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.4% to its best level since mid-June following a barrage of economic reports, which didn’t really offer much inspiration to market participants.

The ADP Employment Change report isn’t always a precise indicator of what is in store with the official nonfarm payrolls report, but the ADP report does do a good job of handicapping the government’s figure. So, with the latest ADP report showing a higher-than-expected the 473,000 job losses for June, many believe job losses in tomorrow’s report could exceed the 363,000 that is currently being forecast.

Many economists are worried that continued weakness in labor markets and recent increases in Treasury yields could stymie a recovery in housing. According to the latest data, pending home sales for May increased just 0.1% month-over-month. They were expected to be flat after spiking 7.1% the month before.

Meanwhile, construction spending during May fell 0.9% month-over-month and missed expectations.

The June ISM Manufacturing Index came in at an in-line 44.8, which means manufacturing activity continues to contract since the Index is below 50. The monthly reading was last above 50 in February 2008. However, the pace of contraction continues to slow as the ISM has now increased six consecutive times.

Despite the generally mixed bag of economic reports, stocks were able to log broad-based gains. Consumer staples (+1.7%) were the strongest performers, thanks to General Mills (GIS 58.18, +2.16). Better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat forecast earned shares of GIS their best single-session advance by percent in nearly one month. The consumer staples sector made its best percentage gain in roughly two weeks.

Financial stocks were some of the session’s worst performers. The sector shed 0.5% and finished at session lows as diversified banks (-0.8%) and regional banks (-1.0%) came under pressure.

Energy stocks struggled to remain in positive territory as sellers pressured the sector amid falling oil prices. The energy sector was up more than 2% at its session high, but finished with a modest 0.2% gain. Crude oil prices were also up more than 2% at their session high, but finished 0.8% lower at $69.35 per barrel. The reversal in oil prices came in the face of a larger-than-expected draw in weekly inventories.

Despite weakness in energy-related commodities, precious metals were able to advance amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Amid reports that China would like to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week’s G8 meeting, the Dollar Index dropped 0.6%. That helped gold prices climb 1.5% to $941.30 per ounce. The broader CRB Commodity Index climbed 0.5%.

Participation was lacking again this session as less than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. That’s the least amount of trading volume in nearly three weeks. Volume is also expected to be light tomorrow since it is the week’s final trading session ahead of the long weekend. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.

..Nasdaq 100 +0.3%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +1.1%. ..Russell 2000 +1.8%.

ILMN Lowers Guidance

Last Update: 01-Jul-09 17:07 ET

Price level versus 4 pm ET: Stocks quickly climbed markedly higher in the early going, but gradually pared their gains throughout afternoon trading.

Though gains remained broad-based, the steady, downward drift made for a rather unimpressive conclusion to the month’s first session

Eight of the ten sectors advanced, led by consumer staples (+1.7%) and utilities (+1.3%). Financials (-0.5%) underperformed.

Futures are flat after hours. S&P 500 futures, at 919.50 are within fair value by a point and Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1478.75 are down by two points.

Economic data will be the primary focus tomorrow. The June employment and weekly jobless claims reports are due at 8:30ET.  Factory Orders for May will be released at 10:00ET.

Three small-cap companies are confirmed to report earnings before the open tomorrow.

With exception of the economic data, tomorrow may be a slow day as many market participants leave early as they take an extended weekend due to the closure of the market Friday in observance of the Fourth of July.

Daily Market Analysis AMC—-25/06/09

16:25 ET

Buyers Bid Stocks, Treasuries, Commodities Higher

Dow +172.54 at 8472.40, Nasdaq +37.20 at 1829.54, S&P +19.32 at 920.26

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks managed to reverse modest losses in the first few minutes of trading to spend the rest of the day trading with impressive gains. There was some fleeting selling pressure heading into the close, but the effort was resisted and stocks finished near session highs.

Thanks to strength among retailers, consumer discretionary stocks(+2.9%) led most of the buying in the broader market. Retailers tacked on 3.8% after Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.08, +2.69) reported better-than-expected first quarter earnings.

Home builder Lennar (LEN 9.19, +1.37) provided leadership to consumer discretionary stocks despite reporting a worse-than-expected quarterly loss.

Meanwhile, Nike (NKE 51.28, -1.74) was a laggard in the group, though it beat quarterly earnings expectations. However, the company indicated that global futures orders dropped 12% from the prior year.

All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 were able to log gains of 1.0% or more. Financials had lagged for most of the session and even traded with a modest loss early on, but spiked into the close to finish with a 1.7% gain.

Bond markets also saw plenty of buying this session after a $27 billion auction of 7-year Notes saw better-than-expected results. The auction drew a yield of 3.33% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.82. Buying at the long-end of the yield curve pushed the benchmark 10-year Note up more than one full point, sending its yield more than 10 basis points lower to just above 3.5%. The 30-year Bond was bid almost two points higher, which dropped its yield 11 basis points to roughly 4.3%.

This session’s broad-based buying also extended into commodities, which helped the CRB Commodity Index climb 1.4%. Energy-based commodities saw particularly strong gains as crude oil prices advanced 2.2% to $70.15 per barrel in pit trading. Natural gas prices settled at $3.84 per contract, up 2.2% after weekly inventory data showed a smaller-than-expected build.

In economic data, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 totaled 627,000, which is more than expected and up from the previous week. Continuing claims crept up to 6.74 million. Though that is still off of its record high, it exceeded forecasts.

The final reading for first quarter GDP showed a 5.5% annualized decline, which is a slight improvement from the 5.7% annualized decline that was previously reported. The revision came from a smaller decline in inventories than previously reported, but personal consumption expenditures were revised downward to show a 1.4% increase.

..Nasdaq 100 +2.0%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +2.5%. ..Russell 2000 +2.9%.

Price level versus 4 pm ET: Stocks managed to reverse modest losses in the first few minutes of trading to spend the rest of the day trading with impressive gains.

There was some fleeting selling pressure heading into the close, but the effort was resisted and stocks finished near session highs.

All ten sectors posted a gain, led by consumer discretionary (+2.9%) as retailers rallied 3.8%. The telecom (+1.0%) and financial (+1.7%) sectors underperformed on a relative basis.

Futures are flat-to-slightly lower after hours. S&P 500 futures, at 916.80 are in-line with fair value and Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1473.00 are down by two points

In economic data, the May personal income/spending report is due at 8:30ET, followed by the revised Michigan Sentiment survey for June at 9:55ET.

Three  companies are confirmed to report before the open – Azz (AZZ), Gerber Scientific (BRB) and KB Home(KBH).

Daily Market Analysis AMC—-23/06/09

Quiet Session Closes Mixed

Dow -16.10 at 8322.91, Nasdaq -1.27 at 1764.92, S&P+2.06 at 895.10

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks spent the session chopping along in a relatively narrow trading range. The lack of direction left the major indices to finish the session in mixed fashion.

The May Existing Home Sales report was the day’s headlining news item,

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Daily Market Analysis AMC—-22/06/09

Sellers Sink Stocks

Dow -200.72 at 8339.01, Nasdaq -61.78 at 1766.19, S&P -28.19 at 893.04

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 moved sharply lower in broad-based fashion, which took it below the key 900 level for the first time this month. With sellers in control, the session culminated in the stock market’s worst single-session percentage loss in two months.

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