S&P 500 outpacing rival Dow as stocks rally

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are commonly used to measure the performance of U.S. stocks, but the disparity in the benchmarks’ returns this year during the powerful rally highlights their different approaches to tracking the market.

So far in 2009 through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 (SPX 1,092, +18.83, +1.75%) had posted a year-to-date gain of 17.1%, handily outpacing the Dow’s(INDU 10,016, +144.95, +1.47%) 10.8% rise.

“While the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 share the spotlight as the two most-watched measures of the U.S. equity markets, the behavior of these indexes does vary considerably based on market conditions,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx.

“During up-trending markets, the broader based S&P 500 has the edge. During down markets, however, the Dow outperforms,” Colas wrote in a report Thursday. “The recent weakness in the U.S. dollar should benefit the more multinational Dow, especially if the greenback’s weakness spurs a long-awaited market correction.”

The performance gap between the S&P 500 and the Dow is due to several key methodology differences, even though investors see both indexes used in media reports recapping the market’s daily moves.

First, the 30 stock components in the venerable Dow are weighted by share price. The S&P 500, on the other hand, uses a market-capitalization-weighting strategy.

The broader S&P 500 holds a greater number of stocks and so digs deeper into markets by holding more smaller-cap companies. Read earlier story profiling the indexes.

Blue-chip battle

Both indexes have a subjective element because the stocks are selected by people rather than by objective rules. The stocks in the Dow are chosen by the editors of The Wall Street Journal, while an index committee maintains the S&P 500.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first published in 1896. It was originally made up of a dozen stocks and designed to give investors a gauge of the overall market’s performance.

The modern S&P 500, meanwhile, has been around since the 1950s and today is preferred by investment professionals to track the market. Yet perhaps for nostalgic reasons, the mainstream press often quotes the Dow in market reports.

“The amount of money that tracks the S&P 500 far outweighs that which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but it is still the Dow that most Americans associate with the U.S. equity markets,” said Colas at ConvergEx. “Just look at any general-interest evening TV newscast; it is the Dow that gets the top billing.”

Nearly $1 trillion in indexed assets tracks the S&P 500, according to Standard & Poor’s. “Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with approximately 75% coverage of U.S. equities, it is also an ideal proxy for the total market,” says S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos.

There are index funds and exchange-traded funds tracking both benchmarks. The ETFs include SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY 109.33, +0.02, +0.02%), iShares S&P 500 Index Fund(IVV 109.67, -0.03, -0.03%) and Dow Diamonds (DIA 100.25, +0.02, +0.02%).

Explaining the performance gap

Through the end of September, the S&P 500 had a five-year annualized return of 1%. Its ten-year return was slightly in the red at negative 0.2%, according to S&P. The Dow has fared slightly better with a five-year annualized return of 1.9%, and a 10-year gain of 1.6%, according to Dow Jones, which like MarketWatch is owned by News Corp.

“The S&P 500 has performed better in up-trending markets over the past few years. During both this year’s recovery in stocks from their March lows and the longer rally in equities during the mid-1990s, the S&P 500 did better than the Dow,” Colas noted

However, the Dow tends to outperform during strong bear markets. “As equity markets fell in 2007 and 2008, the Dow declined less that the S&P 500,” the strategist said. Even though the indexes tend to perform similarly over longer periods, return differences like those seen this year can “persist for quite some time.”

The S&P 500′s relatively larger tilt to smaller stocks has been helping during the rally that has pushed the index up by 56.3% since the March 9 low, as of Wednesday’s close. The Dow has risen 48.5% since then, according to FactSet Research.

“Smaller-cap stocks (especially those with low stock prices) have been much of the horsepower in the current market rally,” Colas wrote.

Yet if the stock market experiences the correction that many expect, those small stocks “will likely see the brunt of the initial selling.” And if markets again grow skittish over the troubled banking system, the Dow would benefit from its lower exposure to financial stocks compared with the S&P 500. The Dow has a “nonexistent weighting in smaller banks and finance companies,” Colas said.

The Dow would also benefit more if the U.S. dollar keeps sliding, he added. “By virtue of the Dow’s concentration in large multinational companies, it should be better positioned to benefit from the current swoon in the greenback,” Colas observed. “These enterprises should be able to generate incremental profits by repatriating foreign earnings into their home currency, the U.S. dollar.”

John Spence is a reporter for MarketWatch in Boston.

US Mortgage rate inches lower

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The national average interest rate on the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate loan averaged 5.07% in the week ending Thursday, down from last week’s 5.08% and the year-ago 5.93%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. The 15-year fixed-rate loan averaged 4.50%, down from the week-ago 4.54% and the year-ago 5.54%. The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 4.51%, compared with 4.59% a week ago and 5.87% a year ago. “Mortgage rates remained historically low over the past two weeks, keeping housing very affordable,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s vice president and chief economist. “As a result, mortgage applications leapt 17% over the week ending Sept. 4, led by a 23% jump in refinancing demand, according [to] the Mortgage Bankers Association.”

Apple New product

Apple Premieres iTunes 9

September 9, 2009

Apple today introduced iTunes 9, the latest version of the world’s most popular software application to purchase, manage and play media, packed with innovative features such as iTunes LP, Home Sharing and Genius Mixes, as well as a redesigned store and improved syncing. iTunes 9 makes it easier than ever to discover, purchase and enjoy your music, movies, TV shows, and apps for iPhone and iPod touch from Apple’s revolutionary App Store.Filed under: iPod+iTunes. Read more: apple.com/itunes

Apple Introduces New iPod touch Lineup

September 9, 2009

The new iPod touch, starting at just $199, gives you a great iPod, a great pocket computer, a great game player and access to Apple’s revolutionary App Store with over 75,000 applications. iPod touch features Apple’s revolutionary Multi-Touch user interface, a gorgeous 3.5-inch widescreen glass display, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and a built-in accelerometer and speaker in an amazingly thin metal design that slips easily into your pocket.Filed under: iPod+iTunes. Read more: apple.com/ipodtouch

Apple’s iPod shuffle Now Starts at Just $59

September 9, 2009

The iPod shuffle, the world’s smallest music player and the first music player to talk to you, is available now, starting at just $59, in five great colors. iPod shuffle’s intuitive controls are conveniently located on the headphone cord, letting you navigate and enjoy music without even looking. Filed under: iPod+iTunes. Read more: apple.com/ipodshuffle

Apple Introduces New iPod nano With Built-in Video Camera

September 9, 2009

The new iPod nano adds a video camera, mic and speaker to the world’s most popular music player, allowing you to shoot video wherever you are, view it on your iPod nano and use your computer to easily transfer your videos to YouTube. The new iPod nano—available today in an 8GB model for $149 and a 16GB model for $179—features an ultra-thin and sleek design with a larger 2.2-inch color display and gorgeous polished aluminum and glass enclosure in nine brilliant colors. Filed under: iPod+iTunes.Read more: apple.com/ipodnano

Overview Market Analysis for whole world

With the Global Market rally from march 09 to now 25/08/09 .The Global market is seen to be reslient and will likely to still be on the uptrend ,due to strong sentiment of the bullish.

$SPX(US Index)…{+}

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Global recession over, but will leave scars: IMF

MARKET PULSE

Aug 18, 2009, 12:18 p.m. EST

Global recession over, but will leave scars: IMF

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AlertEmailPrintShareBy Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The global recession is over and a recovery has begun, Olivier Blanchard, the top economist for the International Monetary Fund, said Tuesday. “The turnaround will not be simple,” Blancard wrote in an article released by the IMF. “The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.” Growth is coming for most countries, he said, but it won’t be strong enough to reduce unemployment for a while. Potential output may have been permanently reduced. Growth is still highly dependent on government stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies. Sustaining growth “will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries,” he said.

Credit crunch likely to persist, bankers say

Aug 17, 2009, 2:21 p.m. EST

Credit crunch likely to persist, bankers say

Lenders still clamping down on business, real estate, consumer loans

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Banks

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By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Banks were still clamping down on lending to businesses and consumers over the past three months, and they said they planned to keep their credit standards tight for at least a year, the Federal Reserve reported Monday.

In its quarterly survey of banks’ senior loan officers, the Fed said lending standards got even tighter for almost every type of loan, from prime residential mortgages to commercial and industrial loans. The survey covered May, June and July.

Banks have been tightening their standards for various types of loans for more than two years. For residential mortgages, banks have tightened their standards for 11 straight quarters by increasing requirements for down payments, interest-rate spreads, or credit scores.

Vanguard’s bold move into bonds

Vanguard is pushing into exchange-traded bond funds. Now bond-fund buyers can expect more choices, says Dan Wiener, editor of the Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors newsletter.

In the most recent survey, no banks reported easing their terms for residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, or consumer credit cards. Less than 4% of banks said they had eased terms on commercial and industrial loans and for home-equity loans.

Tighter lending standards reduce the amount of credit available. The banks also said demand for most types of loans had declined. One exception: Demand for prime-quality residential loans rose slightly, on net.

The Fed asked the banks when they thought their policies would get back in line with their long-term trend. For commercial and industrial loans to businesses, just 13% said conditions would return to normal by the middle of 2010, with another 36% saying it would be in late 2010.

For commercial real estate, just 2% said normal credit policies would return within a year, and 40% said policies would remain tighter than usual for the foreseeable future.

For prime mortgages, 9% said they expected policies to return to normal within a year, and 42% said policies would remain tighter than usual for the foreseeable future.

For nonprime borrowers, a majority of banks said policies would remain tighter than normal for the foreseeable future, and fewer than 10% said standards would normalize within the year.

Details

For commercial and industrial loans, 35% of banks tightened standards for their biggest customers and 36% tightened for smaller customers. Most banks said the uncertain economy was the major reason for tightening credit. No banks eased standards. About 60% of the banks reported falling demand for such loans.

For commercial real estate loans, 47% of banks tightened lending standards and none loosened them. About 70% reported weaker demand.

For prime mortgages, 22% tightened standards and none eased. About 40% reported higher demand. For nontraditional loans, 46% tightened standards and none eased. About 13% reported higher demand. For subprime loans, fewer than three banks responded, so the Fed did not report any results.

For home-equity loans, 36% tightened standards and 4% loosened them. About 28% reported weaker demand.

For credit cards, 36% tightened standards and none eased. About 31% said demand was weaker.

Shanghai skids 5.8%, leads Asian markets down again

Aug 17, 2009, 5:49 a.m. EST

Shanghai skids 5.8%, leads Asian markets down again

Commodity prices’ decline, July FDI slump hands China biggest drop of 2009

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Asia PacificChinaAngang Steel Co LtdAluminum Corp China Ltd

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By V. Phani Kumar, Colin Ng & Wei-Zhe Tan

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Shanghai stocks dropped 5.8% Monday, suffering their biggest percentage drop so far this year, as lower commodity prices, persistent worries over tightening in bank loans and weak economic data dampened investor sentiment.

Hong Kong shares were also weighted down by the performance as well as a steep fall in U.S. stock futures and commodity prices. In Tokyo, exporters were dragged down by the yen’s strength as risk-averse investors bought the low-yielding currency in search of a perceived safe haven.

“The U.S. fall on Friday helped to reduce the risk appetite for speculators holding Asian assets, said Ben Collett, head of cash equities at TFS Derivatives. He added, “What we’re seeing is guys getting a little risk averse and cutting their losses.”

China’s Shanghai Composite index posted its biggest percentage drop since November and ended at 2,870.63, its first close below 3,000 since the end of June. In Shenzhen, the main stock index dropped 6.6% to 955.87, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index skidded 3.6% to end at 20,137.65, led lower by a slump in China-related stocks.

SHCOMP
Metals stocks were hit hardest, with Angang Steel(ANGGY 94.15, -0.60, -0.63%) and Yunnan Copper dropping by the day’s 10% limit in Shenzhen, while Aluminum Corp. of China(ACH 27.94, -2.20, -7.30%) and Jiangxi Copper (JIXA.Y 81.91, -11.01, -11.85%)dropped by as much in Shanghai. Sentiment was also hurt after Yunnan Copper reported a loss for the first half of the year.

“The large gains in [China markets in] the first half recreated a bubble in the market, so when the government showed signs of tightening bank credit there’s a selloff,” said Zhang Yong, an analyst at Great Wall Securities.

The drop coincided with data showing foreign direct investment into China slumped 35.7% to $5.36 billion in July from the year-earlier period. Foreign direct investment flows for the first seven months of the year were down 20.3% compared with a year earlier, noted Moody’s Economy.com economist Sherman Chan.

“As the central government is determined to achieve the annual growth target of 8%, policymakers may have to step up efforts to boost momentum in coming months,” she wrote in a report.

Regional markets

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies ended down 3.1%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended 1.6% lower, South Korea’s Kospi ended down 2.8% and India’s Sensex was 2.4% lower recently. Taiwan’s Taiex ended 2.0% lower, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost 2.1%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU 9,158, -158.10, -1.70%) futures were recently down 138 points in screen trade, adding to the late selling pressure in the region.

In Tokyo, data showing Japan’s second-quarter gross domestic product registered its first quarterly growth in five quarters, did little for the Tokyo markets. GDP grew 0.9% from the quarter before, compared with a 1.0% rise tipped in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists.

Royal Bank of Scotland economist Junko Nishioka, however, noted that capital expenditure by Japanese companies dropped for a fifth straight month.

“As corporate free cash flow decreases, we expect capex to continue to contract throughout the year,” said Ms. Nishioka. “Given exports started to slow down in June, especially to China, and household consumption is quite fragile due to the deterioration in the labor market, we believe GDP will slow in Q3 and beyond. In addition, the effect of the economic stimulus packages is likely to gradually diminish.

Daily Market Analysis AMC—27/07/09

Sellers Shaken for Modest Gain

Dow +15.27 at 9108.51, Nasdaq +1.93 at 1967.89, S&P+2.92 at 982.18

[BRIEFING.COM] Thanks to underlying support in the broader market and leadership from bank stocks, the major indices were able to shake off a mild fit of profit taking and close modestly higher.

Stocks started the session with moderate losses as participants pushed back after watching stocks climb more than 10% during the course of the past two weeks. The major averages made a respectable move higher when news surfaced that new home sales during June spiked 11% to hit a better-than-expected annualized rate of 384,000. With new home sales coming in at their highest rate since November, the supply of unsold homes moved lower to 8.8 months from 10.2 months in May.

Enthusiasm over the new home sales report didn’t last very long, but a supportive bid for the broader market helped contain weakness. The stock market was also supported by strength among bank stocks, which underpinned a 1.5% gain by the financial sector.

Bank stocks showed strength for the entire session and helped the KBW Banking Index log a 3.1% gain. With many major banks having already reported their quarterly results, there weren’t any particular news items to account for the strength behind banking issues. However, news from The Wall Street Journal that second quarter lending was down nearly 3% among 15 large U.S. banks suggested that many banks remain cautious about putting their money to work. Reports indicate that lending also slowed in the euro-zone.

In-line earnings from Dow component Verizon (VZ 31.00, -0.50) and Honeywell (HON 34.24, +0.25) were underwhelming. Honeywell’s cautious outlook did little to inspire. Such was the same for Aetna (AET 25.72, -0.72), which also fell short of earnings expectations.

A prerecorded interview with Fed Chairman Bernanke will air on PBS tonight. According to Reuters, Bernanke responded to questions about the Fed’s actions during the past year by saying that he would not be the one who presided over the second Great Depression. Bernanke also stated that the jobless rate will remain high even after the U.S. exits recession.

AMGN Tops Estimates

Last Update: 27-Jul-09 16:52 ET

Price level versus 4 pm ET: Thanks to underlying support in the broader market and leadership from bank stocks, the major indices were able to shake off a mild fit of profit taking and close modestly higher.

Seven of the ten sectors posted a gain, led by financials (+1.5%), with banks showing particularly strength.

The worst performing sector was tech (-0.3%).

Futures are flat after hours, with S&P 500 futures, at 979.10 and Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1598.00 both in-line with fair value.

AMGN reports second quarter (Jun) earnings of $1.29 per share, $0.13 better than the First Call consensus of $1.16. Revenue fell 1.4% year-over-year to $3.71 billion versus the $3.58 billion consensus. second quarter Drug Sales: Enbrel: $899 million versus $901 million; Neulasta: $831 million versus $875 million First Call Consensus; Aranesp: $693 million versus $668 million First Call Consensus; Epogen: $638 million versus $605 million First Call Consensus; Neupogen: $327 million versus $322 million First Call Consensus. Company issues upside guidance for fiscal year 2008, sees earnings per share of $4.80-4.95 versus $4.57 consensus; says revenues for 2009 are trending towards the upper end of the current guidance range of $14.4-14.8 billion versus $14.33 billion consensus. “We are optimistic about our financial performance in 2009 and are focused on making denosumab a success,” said Kevin Sharer, chairman and chief executive officer.

A larger number of companies report earnings tomorrow before the open, including Office Depot (ODP),Supervalu (SVU), U.S. Steel (XC) and Viacom (VIA.B).

On the economic calendar, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May is due 9:00ET followed by July consumer confidence at 10:00ET.

The first of a three part speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke on PBS news Hour with Jim Lehrer is scheduled for 18:00ET.

Daily Market Analysis 24/07/09—AMC

Stocks Overcome Weakness for Mixed Finish

Dow +23.95 at 9093.24, Nasdaq -7.64 at 1965.96, S&P+2.97 at 979.26

[BRIEFING.COM] Tech stocks were under pressure for the entire session and caused the Nasdaq to log its first loss in more than two weeks, but a supportive bid in the broader market emerged to help the Dow and S&P 500 reverse early losses and finish with a modest gain.

Microsoft (MSFT 23.45, -2.11) weighed on the Nasdaq for the entire session. Though the company generated in-line earnings, a double-digit percentage decline in revenue caused its top line to come short of expectations. Microsoft’s report showcased just how weak demand remains.

Semiconductor stocks (-1.3%) were pressured even though Broadcom (BRCM 27.20, -1.98) topped earnings expectations, saw revenue rise at a double-digit annual clip, and provided upside revenue guidance for the third quarter. Some believe the results from semiconductor companies are an inaccurate barometer for the tech sector’s health since they feed the tech supply chain rather than consumers directly.

In-line earnings and an in-line outlook from online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 86.49, -7.38) failed to rebuff profit takers from locking in gains from the stock’s 24% surge between July 7 and July 23. That also weighed on the Nasdaq.

Weakness in the Nasdaq caused it to lag the other headline indices for the entire session. It was down nearly 2% at its session low, but was able to reclaim most of its losses as the session progressed. Still, its decline put an end to its 12-session streak of gains.

The S&P 500, a broader market benchmark, was able to close with a modest gain at session highs. Health care provided leadership with a 1.6% advance amid news from Reuters that a leader of House fiscal conservatives said health care reform talks fell apart and that he sees no possibility of a deal.

Financial stocks tried to provide support to the broader market, but they never made their way into positive territory. Instead, they finished with a 0.3% loss. Capital One (COF 30.07, +2.24) saw strong gains, though. The consumer finance outfit reported a second quarter loss that wasn’t as deep as what had been expected. Participants also reacted positively to the company’s quarterly metrics.

Dow component American Express (AXP 29.51, +0.06) was able to eke out a gain after narrowly topping the consensus earnings estimate. Its loss provisions were down from the year-ago period, but they were offset by higher write-offs and past due loans.

Market participants return Monday to another batch of quarterly announcements. New home sales data for June are also due.

..Nasdaq 100 -0.2%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.6%. ..Russell 2000 +0.5%.

Weekly Wrap

Last Update: 24-Jul-09 16:50 ET

The stock market logged another impressive week as investors cheered better-than-expected earnings reports, with the S&P 500 surging 4.1%, marking an 11% gain since July 10.

The best performing sectors were materials (+8.1%), energy (+5.6%) and utilities (+5.6%).

The week got off to a positive bias on report from The Wall Street Journal that CIT Group (CIT) had reached an agreement with its bondholders to secure $3 billion in rescue financing, which was later confirmed by the struggling lender.  Whether CIT will be able to avoid bankruptcy remains to be seen, although this will give the lender some time to explore its options.

With only a handful of economic releases, the main focus this week was the large amount of earnings reports — 142 S&P 500 companies reported their quarterly results, including 12 Dow components.

Earnings for the most recent quarter largely came out ahead of expectations, with 111 beats, 10 in-line and 21 misses.  But the earnings beats were largely due to cost cutting measures, not upside surprises on the top line. Specifically, 72 companies posted revenue that failed to live up to expectations, and 102 reported year-over-year declines in revenue.

For instance, Microsoft met analyst EPS estimates in its fiscal fourth quarter at $0.36, but the software giant’s revenue decline of 17% y/y to $13.1 bln was well short of the $14.4 bln consensus. Shares of MSFT fell 4.0% for the week.

There were 11 other Dow components that reported – Merck (MRK), United Tech. (UTX), DuPont (DD), CocaCola (KO), Caterpillar (CAT), Boeing (BA), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), AT&T (T), McDonald’s (MCD), AmericanExpress (AXP) –  all of which topped EPS expectations. Yet the revenue results reflect the difficult corporate environment — only two companies posted positive (nearly flat) y/y revenue, and seven missed the consensus revenue estimate.  The market’s reaction to the earnings reports were mostly positive, led by a 23.6% surge in shares of CAT.

The economic calendar was light this week, although there are a handful of notable mentions. Initial claims for the week ended July 18 jumped 30,000 to 554,000. The consensus estimate stood at 557,000 so the increase was expected. The latest figure left the four-week moving average at 566,000, which is down from 585,000 in the prior week.  Although the decline in the four-week moving average is a welcome sign, new jobless claims are still well above normal levels.

Existing Home Sales in June increased 3.6% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units. That was above the consensus estimate of 4.84 million, yet with the slight downward revision for May to 4.72 million from 4.77 million, the 2-month period was precisely in-line with estimates. The June report validates the notion that existing home sales are stabilizing at a depressed base.  Still, housing faces significant hurdles, such as rising unemployment and excess inventory.

In other news, Fed Chairman Bernanke addressed Senate and House finance committees this week in his semiannual report.  The chairman did not give any real surprises, noting that current economic conditions warrant the low fed funds rate for an extended period of time.  Bernanke expects a gradual economic recovery in 2010, with some acceleration in 2011.

The advance this week sent the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 to their best levels of the year, with the Dow now in positive territory.

The coming week brings another barrage of earnings reports, as well as a pickup in economic data.  The advance Q2 GDP reading, due on Friday, is expected to show a decline of 1.5%.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	8743.94	9093.24	349.30	4.0	3.6
Nasdaq	1886.61	1965.96	79.35	4.2	24.7
S&P 500	940.38	979.26	38.88	4.1	8.4
Russell 2000	519.22	548.46	29.24	5.6	9.8

Obama stresses urgency of health-care reform

Jul 22, 2009, 9:37 p.m. EST

Obama stresses urgency of health-care reform

President uses prime-time news conference to pitch overhaul

By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — President Barack Obama reached

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